History shows a disruptive technology’s tipping point can be under 5% of market share, that’s all it takes. The number of horses in use peaked in the U.S. once car ownership reached 3%. Gas lighting in the UK peaked with electric lighting at just 2% of the market. Landline phones in the U.S. fell precipitously after mobiles captured 5% of the market. Ji Chen and Koben Calhoun at RMI argue the tipping point has already been passed for solar, wind, battery storage and EVs. The clearest sign is the decline in oil prices and the stock market performance of the oil and gas majors. The authors present their evidence on those clean energy champions, and predict exponential growth as they scale up further. They say that’s why governments and private firms should also focus on the clean technologies still struggling to reach their tipping point: long-haul transport, high penetration renewables (for microgrids, etc.), clean steel and cement, space cooling/heating, hydrogen, carbon capture, and biofuels. They end with a look at China’s successes and its ability to coordinate large scale action to drive these tipping points and thereby its transition.
Energy Post 5th June 2020 read more »