BP’s latest Outlook predicts – for the first time – that oil saw its peak in 2019. In each of BP’s Outlooks, published annually since 2011, they have revised their predictions for the global energy landscape to 2050 as new data comes in. The growth of clean energy and the changing shape of climate policies have seen each successive forecast increase the share of renewables at the expense of fossil fuels. This year even gas has seen its prospects trimmed back, along with coal as expected. To its “business as usual” and “rapid” scenarios, BP has now added “net zero”. That’s a sign of both the growing political momentum to reduce emissions as well as BP’s own new plan to reach net-zero emissions itself by 2050 as an “integrated energy company” rather than an oil major. Simon Evans at Carbon Brief runs through the predictions and picks out the highlights around renewables, oil, gas and coal. Other eye-openers include the new prediction that growth in global energy demand is slowing; until this year the forecast was for no change to the usual steady growth as populations and incomes rise. This year’s outlook was delayed by six months to reflect the unprecedented impact of the coronavirus pandemic. Behaviour change and home working have now been factored in – good news for those who have always said that technology alone won’t be enough.
Energy Post 21st Sept 2020 read more »