The world energy outlooks published annually by the IEA, BP and DNV GL look very different this year. 1.5°C scenarios are being taken much more seriously. Could it be because of the trauma of Covid-19, or the extraordinary – though still insufficient – success of renewables coupled with the rising ambition of climate-aware governments and their policies? Either way, they are helping to shift the debate away from the mainstream “business as usual” (BAU) projections that have always dominated. James Newcomb and Krutarth Jhaveri at RMI take a look at the new low emission scenarios and predictions for world final energy demand, peak oil, renewables, low-carbon pathways, new technologies, and more. Could the Paris target of 1.5°C be supplanting BAU as the new benchmark that investors, businesses, citizens and governments must use to shape their futures, because it is more likely to happen? Until recently it’s been the other way around. The authors start their article, lyrically, by looking at how 16th century maps of new frontiers were forced to change once incontrovertible evidence of the reality came in.
Energy Post 23rd Oct 2020 read more »