The remaining “carbon budget” specifies the maximum amount of CO2 that may be emitted to stabilise warming at a particular level – such as the Paris Agreement’s 1.5C target. Carbon budgets have played an important role in national and international climate policy – not least being a key rationale for adopting net-zero emissions targets. Yet, there are many sources of uncertainty that make it challenging to estimate the remaining carbon budget in real-world conditions – especially for the most ambitious mitigation targets. In our new study, published in Nature’s Communications Earth and Environment journal, we present an integrated approach to quantifying these uncertainties and incorporating them into estimates of the remaining carbon budget.
Carbon Brief 19th Jan 2021 read more »