The next decade will be critical in containing global warming to the limits the world has set itself, European researchers warn. And at least one of the targets stipulated in the 2015 Paris agreement may be unrealistic, according to a second team of European researchers. Researchers in Austria report in Nature Communications that they took a long hard look at what must happen to keep global warming to “well below” an average global rise of 2°C and if possible 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. They deployed a mathematical simulation – in effect a computer model – to measure the carbon emitted in fossil fuel consumption, and the carbon taken up by natural mechanisms such as forests and oceans, and the impact of the ways humans use the land around them. And the conclusion is uncompromising. “This study shows that the combined energy and land-use system should deliver zero-net anthropogenic emissions well before 2040 in order to assure the attainability of a 1.5°C target by 2100,” says Michael Obersteiner, one of the authors, and ecosystem services and management programme director of the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, based in Laxenburg, Austria.
Climate News Network 2nd May 2017 read more »