World electricity generation from nuclear energy could range from 3,960 TWh to 6,101 TWh by 2040, increasing from around 2,535 TWh in 2014 in a number of different scenarios examined by the International Energy Agency (IEA) in its World Energy Outlook 2016 report released today. The report covers three possible scenarios. The main scenario, the ‘New Policies Scenario’, incorporates existing energy policies as well as an assessment of the results likely to stem from the implementation of pledges submitted for the COP21 Paris climate agreement. The ‘Current Policies Scenario’ includes only those policies firmly enacted as of mid-2016, while the ‘450 Scenario’ sets out an “energy pathway” consistent with the goal of limiting the global increase in temperature to less than two degrees Celsius by limiting the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere to around 450 parts per million of CO2. Under the 450 Scenario nuclear could be generating 6,101 TWh of the world’s electricity by 2040. That would increase nuclear’s share of the energy mix from 11% in 2014 to 18% in 2040, the report says.
Nucnet 16th Nov 2016 read more »
There will be “major transformations in the global energy system over the next decades” as government policies to combat climate change and energy efficiency measures take effect, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). Nuclear generating capacity, it says, could more than double by 2040. In the World Energy Outlook 2016, published today, the IEA presents three scenarios for the world’s energy mix up to 2040. The New Policies Scenario looks at the impact of existing government policies and commitments on energy demand, supplies and investments. The Current Policies Scenario only includes policies that are firmly enacted, providing a benchmark. The 450 Scenario demonstrates a pathway to limit long-term global warming to 2°C above pre-industrial levels.
World Nuclear News 16th Nov 2016 read more »
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has dramatically scaled back its outlook for coal demand growth over the next 25 years, Carbon Brief analysis shows. The 2016 World Energy Outlook sees global coal demand rise by 214 million tonnes of oil equivalent (Mtoe) by 2040, less than half the 485Mtoe increase it expected last year. The IEA is also now persuaded that Chinese coal demand peaked in 2013. Nonetheless, its central outlook sees coal use in 2040 being more than twice as high as needed for a 2C path. This coal disparity is the largest obstacle to meeting global climate goals, the report shows. Carbon Brief looks at what the World Energy Outlook means for coal and the climate.
Carbon Brief 16th Nov 2016 read more »
Oil demand will keep growing until at least 2040 as increasing fuel needs for shipping, aviation, trucks and plastics manufacturing more than offset the impact of electric cars and climate targets, the International Energy Agency has forecast. The current investment slump due to lower oil prices is setting the stage for a fresh cycle of boom and bust, with supply shortages likely to cause rapid price increases by the early 2020s unless companies start developing new projects again next year, the IEA warned. In its annual World Energy Outlook report, the Paris-based agency said there was “no peak yet in sight” for oil demand, countering suggestions by companies like Royal Dutch Shell which has said demand could peak in as little as five years’ time.
Telegraph 16th Nov 2016 read more »