Northern Ireland is facing “significant” energy price rises in the event of a no-deal. A “rapid” split in the electricity market, which was put in place across the island of Ireland after the Good Friday agreement, could occur “months or years” after Brexit. A split would probably result in “significant electricity and price increases for consumers” and could lead to energy providers leaving the market, “exacerbating the economic and political impacts”. The concerns raised in the document are at odds with public statements on the market’s future. Official government guidance asserts that it is “strongly in the interests of all parties to agree to a means to avoid a split “. However, Yellowhammer suggests that might not be possible. Demand for energy will be met, and there will be no disruption to electricity or gas interconnectors. In Northern Ireland there will not be immediate disruption to electricity supply on Day 1. A rapid split of SEM could occur months or years after the EU Exit. In this event there would not be issues about security of supply. However, there will probably be marked price rises for electricity customers (business and domestic), with associated wider economic and political effects. Some participants could exit the market, exacerbating economic and political effects.
Times 18th Aug 2019 read more »